Sydney FC are losing games because they do not score enough goals, and they are not scoring enough goals because of a simple mistake in recruitment that has destroyed the strength of Viteslav Lavicka's system.
I doubt that Sydney FC were ever a club in denial. Now it is undoubtedly a team in decline. And the question must be asked: how, how on God's green turf, how did it come to this?
Four points in nine games. Nine games without a win. Only 16 goals conceded, but only 10 scored.
The worst factor is the crowd numbers. To endure a crowd of just under 7,000 on a rainy Wednesday night is understandable. To witness the same number turn up to watch top of the table Adelaide on a public holiday was enormously depressing. One can only imagine the effect on the players.
Dire, desperate times await. Sydney had three home games in eight days to get a win and never looked like deserving one. Not even in the brightest of times against Gold Coast did Sydney look like ruthless champions. It seems that the Sky Blues have forgotten that they hoisted the A League toilet seat just months ago.
Mark Bridge has not scored for Sydney in seven games. Alex Brosque has two in five, Bruno Cazarine likewise. Sydney have played more games than they have goalscorers.
To say that a Herculean task awaits Sydney FC is not an understatement. The only saving grace for Lavicka is the margin: Sydney are only seven points from the playoffs. Three straight wins and they are straight back in the game.
But to win three straight games when you have not won a match in nine is a pretty tall order.
The blame must be apportioned to the club's recruitment and tactical development. Both have been disappointing. Lavicka's job should not be under enormous pressure - indeed, I hope he stays for this season and the next at least. But one bungled recruitment decision has caused him an unending tactical headache.
It is not the striking position. This was the focus during the off season and until the recruitment of big Bruno Cazarine. But the problem stems from further back in the team.
Karol Kisel was arguably Sydney's best player last season. The silky winger took to playing on the side of a midfield diamond with panache and provided Sydney with creativity and determination in equal measure. He flitted between central positions to give and receive one-touch passes and also hugged the line to spread the opposition and drive in crosses. He lifted his teammates and the crowd at just the right moments in the finals.
Lavicka replaced captain Steve Corica with Nicky Carle (in my opinion, a worthy change). But he has not replaced Kisel and this has crippled the team.
Sydney won the championship with the team below.
--------------Bridge-------Brosque-------------
-------------------Corica---------------------
------------Kisel-----------McFlynn---- (switching sides)
-------------------Musialik-----------------
-------Byun----Colosimo----Keller---------Cole--
-----------------------Bolton----------------
Compare that to Lavicka's new (preferred) 11.
------------Brosque--------Cazarine/Bridge----
------------------Carle/Bridge---------------
-----------Jamieson-----------McFlynn--------
--------------------Musialik----------------
-------Byun-----Keller----Ryall----------Cole-
---------------------Reddy------------------
Lavicka has lost a creative, attacking midfielder and winger and replaced him with a young left back. Scott Jamieson is a great prospect and tidy recruit, but a square peg in a round hole and offers solid safety but no attacking threat. Seb Ryall is a promising defender and a reasonable distributor, but does not have Colosimo's vision and steadying influence. Kisel, Colosimo and Corica knew when to turn on the ball, when to encourage their fullback forward and when to (God forbid) pull the trigger.
To lose Kisel's leadership, drive and creativity, as well as Simon Colosimo's expertise in midfield and defence was always going to hurt. But Nicky Carle's injury and Mark Bridge's almost total loss of form and confidence has destroyed this Sydney FC squad. The new look Sydney only have three genuinely creative players in their first 11 and unless Lavicka plays Bridge in the hole and Carle as a wide player in his diamond, he has no Plan B. As good as Hiro Moriyasu is, he is not Karol Kisel, and there is no youth player ready to step into the breach.
Sydney have generally dominated possession and carved out several half-chances this season, but have been unable to stick the ball in the back of the net. They have lacked a prolific goal scorer since the advent of the A League, but got away with it last season because of their tactical superiority. In 2010-2011, other clubs have evolved, Sydney have regressed and found themselves eating dust.
Mark Bridge and Alex Brosque have never been reliable goalscorers. The only way Sydney can win with these strikers is to excel in every other department and create numerous chances, but the Sky Blues have not been putting them away. Free headers sail over. Players hit the post from inside the box. Midfielders only pull the trigger after the pass has been considered and a defender is ready to block. It's just not happening and Sydney are starting to collect more yellow cards for dissent than goals.
The matches against the Fury and Adelaide underlined the malaise. Sydney played their dominating game against both clubs and lost points. They managed to play the ball on the ground throughout Wednesday's rain-soaked match against the Fury, but were unable to score a second goal. They should have trounced Adelaide but again couldn't lift in the final third of the pitch and tired legs collapsed in the last ten minutes of the match.
Sydney's best performance of the season came in the opening match when Nicky Carle destroyed Melbourne, particularly in the second half. Sydney have struggled to score ever since that game because a team boasting only three creative players relies on at least one massive performance each match. Carle, Brosque and Bridge have suffered injuries, Cazarine is settling in and Brosque and Bridge are struggling for confidence. None look like world beaters and Brosque's Socceroo selection looks extremely fortunate.
I believe Lavicka has several options. He can discover some way to reinvigorate Mark Bridge, promote a young bolter (Terry Antonis would be the hyped choice) into Kisel's position, or wait until Carle's return and play Carle there, on the side of the diamond. This is a poor solution because it robs the side's best player of his preferred position.
But Scott Jamieson, Brendan Gan, Kofi Danning and Hiro Moriyasu cannot play the Kisel role. Jamieson is a fullback whose delivery and positional play was so scattergun on Monday that it seems his stint in midfield has confused him. Danning is an out and out winger who looks suited to a flat 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1 and Hiro is willing but unlikely to reach the creative heights required when Musialik and McFlynn offer so little in the attacking final third.
A change of formation is the other option. But with Lavicka in charge it seems very, very, very unlikely.
